Dr Abel Agoba

ABSTRACT

The interconnection of stock markets has been extensively examined; however, the spillover effects between conventional markets and ESG (environmental, social, and governance) markets during periods of crisis remain underexplored. This study employs the time‐varying parameter VAR approach to investigate the connectedness between the conventional markets of G7 countries and their ESG counterparts, along with the geopolitical risk (GPR) index and gold index. The results indicate that the Japanese market emerges as the largest risk recipient overall, including during times of crisis. Additionally, the study reveals that market interconnectedness intensifies significantly during the COVID‐19 pandemic compared to normal periods and the Russia–Ukraine war. These insights are valuable for investors and managers seeking to diversify their portfolios in times of crisis.

Using panel data from 2004 to 2012, we employ a two-step system GMM estimation technique, with robust standard errors, collapsed instruments and illus-trate marginal effects of central bank independence on financial development in Africa. We also examine the moderating roles of human capital, proxied by literacy rates on the CBI-financial development nexus. We find that, in countries with higher literacy rates/human capital, the positive impact of dejure CBI on financial development is enhanced. Higher literacy rates however, worsen the negative impact of de facto CBO on financial devel-opment. Independent central banks can be made more effective in achieving financial development through governments improving literacy rates. The study is the first to empirically examine the impact of central bank independence on financial development using both dejure and de facto CBI measures and literacy rates in explaining this relationship

The study examines the effect of monetary policy and prudential regulations on bank lending behaviour in Africa. This study employs the Two-Stage Least Square (2SLS) estimation technique for a panel dataset of 54 African countries over the period, 2004–2021. The study finds that monetary policy and prudential regulations reduce bank lending and the impact is better in countries with a strong institutional environment. It provides evidence to affirm that monetary policy and prudential regulations provide a complementarity effect in yielding a desirable outcome for bank lending.

Central Bank Independence (CBI) as a mechanism for achieving lower inflation and effective regulation and supervision of the financial sector should promote financial sector development. Though there is not much difference in CBI legal provisions, it seems to be more effective in developed countries than in African countries. There are suggestions that this could be due to differences in political institutional quality. Using panel data from 1970 to 2012, we find that CBI does not promote financial development in Africa. The impact of CBI is dependent on the level of development of a country. CBI promotes financial development more in countries with strong political institutions.

Abstract

This is an examination of the relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in Africa based on the premise that the characteristics of monetary, financial and political institutions, do impact the nature of this relationship. The study hypothesizes that, the inflationary effect of fiscal deficits is minimised when the central bank is independent (CBI) and the financial market is developed enough to contain inflationary expectations. This impact is much more effective given stronger political institutions. Using a panel data spanning 1970–2012 for 48 African countries, we use a Two Stage System Generalised Methods of Moments estimator, with Windmeijer (2005) corrected SE and collapsed instruments to address the issue of instrument proliferation. We also use various measures of central bank independence, financial development and political institutional quality. Fiscal deficits are inflationary in Africa. The positive effect of fiscal deficits on inflation is weakened when the degrees of Central Bank Independence (CBI) and financial development are higher. Financial development minimises the modulating impact of lower CBI on inflationary fiscal deficits. While stronger political institutions minimise the dampening effect of high central bank turnover on inflationary fiscal deficits, it enhances the positive impact of stronger central bank independence and financial development on minimising inflationary fiscal deficits. The results are robust to varying measures of CBI, financial development, and political institutions. Africa's financial sector should therefore be developed alongside strengthening the independence of central banks and ensuring that the quality of political institutions are enhanced in order to effectively curtail inflationary fiscal deficits.

Abstract This article discusses the extent to which central bank independence (CBI) can be used to mitigate the regressive nature of inflation. Using 44 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from the period 1970–2012, the article first examines whether CBI has any influence on inflation by distinguishing between legal independence and governor turnover rates. The evidence shows that CBI helps control inflation, and that inflation generally reduces poverty, and this effect is even stronger, in an environment of low CBI. JEL Codes: E02, E58, E31, I32

Motivated by the literature on reform complementarities and their importance for the effectiveness of central bank independence (CBI) reforms—particularly for African countries—where CBI has empirically not been found to have a significant impact on financial development, we explore the extent to which differences in literacy levels and political institutions could determine the extent and impact of CBI on financial inclusion. Using panel data from 2004 to 2014, we find that, while CBI does not promote financial inclusion in Africa, financial literacy and political institutions do; even to the extent of enabling CBI's impact on financial inclusion. The results are robust to different measures of political institutions from Freedom House and Polity IV Database and present implications for the role governments could play in shepherding central banks in Africa in the midst of Africa's developmental challenges and the global crises.

In this paper, we examine the bi-directional relationship between financial globalization (proxied by foreign direct investment (FDI) flows) and economic institutions (proxied by central bank independence (CBI)) taking into consideration the role of political institutions. We test our argument on a sample of 48 African countries (1970–2012) using a two-step System Generalized Methods of Moments, with collapsed instruments and Windmeijer robust standard errors. Using two proxies for CBI, the study finds that while legal CBI does not have a significant impact on FDI, high central bank governor turnover rates have a significantly negative impact on FDI inflows. However, higher levels of political institutions significantly enhance the impact of legal CBI on FDI inflows, and dampen the impact of high central bank governor turnover rates on FDI inflows. The study also shows that, higher FDI inflows have a significantly positive impact on both legal and de facto CBI. This impact is accelerated in countries characterized by higher levels of political institutions.

The importance of water security to the growth of economies worldwide is becoming more widely acknowledged, as evidenced by the G20 Water Dialogue and the UN Water Conference in 2023. Everyone agrees that limiting the spread of infectious illnesses requires guaranteeing access to clean water, hygienic conditions, and sanitation – especially considering the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Due to insufficient funding, SDG6, one of the main Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which declares the importance of achieving “clean water and sanitation for all”, appears to be far from being achieved. This chapter examines the methods that public and private sectors in numerous countries are funding drinking water, sanitation, and disaster infrastructure. Along with looking at differences in contractual forms used in water infrastructure funding, it looks at the financial gap between present and future needs. It also examines the difficulties that investors in the industry encounter and provides a strategy to help them.

Abstract

The study examines the effects of financial systems and the quality of political institutions on the effectiveness of central bank independence in achieving lower inflation. Drawing from the fiscal theory of price level (FTPL) and political economy of macroeconomic policy (PEMP) literature; we estimate a panel regression model, using Two Stage Least Squares instrumental variables procedure, on a sample of 48 African countries over the period 1970–2012. The study finds that central bank independence-inflation nexus is dependent on the model, sample and estimation technique used. After accounting for various control variables and introducing inflation targeting as an additional explanatory variable, the study shows that, unlike in developed countries, CBI is not sufficient in achieving lower inflation in Africa and the developing world. However, common to developed, developing and African countries, is that, higher central bank independence is more effective in lowering inflation in the presence of high levels of banking sector development and institutional quality. The findings of the study also show that while stock market development enhances the effectiveness of CBI in developed and developing countries, it has no significant effect on CBI effectiveness in Africa.

Using 10 countries’ data set spanning from 1995 to 2018, we examined the non-linearity existing between financial development and mortgage financing in Africa. We invoke the Hansen (2000. “Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation.” Econometrica 68 (3): 575–603. doi:10.1111/1468–0262. 00124.) sample-splitting estimation approach. We observed that more financial development (private credit) impedes mortgage finance when measured against construction but enhanced when measured against GFCF. The same effect is present when domestic credit is used against construction. With GFCF, countries must operate above the threshold point to gain maximum advantage while with Broad money, spending below the threshold estimate is good for mortgage financing. Trade also has positive effect on mortgage finance as this will help the continent’s mortgage development given member countries decisions to adopt the continental free trade policy. This further indicates that, countries involved should work in order not to exceed the threshold point estimate as operating above the threshold would become disincentive for mortgage financing on the continent.

The study primarily investigates if the behavior and effectiveness of CBI on fiscal policy varies between non-election and election years. It also examines whether the effectiveness of CBI in improving fiscal performance is enhanced by higher institutional quality. Using recent CBI data f on 48 African countries, 90 other developing countries and 40 developed countries over the period 1970–2012, we apply a two-stage system GMM with Windmeijer  small sample robust correction estimator and find that due to the strong incentives of political authorities to influence economic outcomes in election years, CBI has stronger effects on fiscal performance in election years compared to non-election years in developed countries only. However, given higher levels of institutional quality, CBI has stronger effects on fiscal performance in election years compared to non-election years in Africa and other developing countries also.