Dr Paul Jones

This paper investigates the cyclical fluctuations in rates of workplace injury for the UK from 1986 to 2005. Time series analysis shows that, in aggregate terms, the rate of minor injuries is pro-cyclical whilst the rate of major injury is not affected by the level of economic activity. Analysis by sector reveals that cyclical fluctuations are sharper in the construction and manufacturing sectors. Using panel data, we find that fluctuations in both the rates of minor and major injury are related to the level of new hiring and the ratio of actual to usual hours worked. However, only minor injuries are related to variables that control for workers' bargaining power. The analysis demonstrates the importance of both compositional effects and individual reporting behaviour to understanding cyclical variations in workplace injury rates. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stock–flow job matching implies that there are two types of job seekers—those on the short side of their occupations who can easily find work, and those on the long side who expect extended unemployment spells. Using matching data and information on completed and uncompleted unemployment spells for England and Wales, this paper uses the stock–flow matching hypothesis to identify the fraction (incidence) of laid off workers who find themselves on the long side of the market and, conditional on being on the long side, their expected unemployment duration. The average incidence is around one-half and increases significantly in recessions. The expected duration is also strongly countercyclical—peaking at 15 months in the 1990–1992 recession and falling to a more modest 9 months by January 1999. Cross-section estimates also identify a North–South divide and a large city effect—the unemployed in large cities and in the North experience longer spells.

Green A. E., De Hoyos M., Jones P. and Owen D. Rural development and labour supply challenges in the UK: the role of non-UK migrants, Regional Studies. Characteristic features of the demographic structure of rural areas in the UK include net out-migration of young adults and an older than average age profile. These features pose a labour supply challenge for rural areas. However, many rural areas are experiencing in-migration (from other parts of the UK and overseas) and there has been considerable policy emphasis on capturing the skills of migrants to enhance local economic development. To date, the role of non-UK migrants in rural areas has received relatively little attention. This paper discusses the impact of recent growth in the numbers of international migrants on the economy and labour market of rural areas and considers the opportunities and risks for rural development posed by increasing reliance on non-UK migrants in the workforce. © 2009 Regional Studies Association.

In debates about employment creation there is increasing concern about the quality as well as the quantity of jobs. The authors examine the regional distribution of workplace employment in the UK using the ‘quality of jobs’ framework. Findings reveal evidence of marked regional differences in average ‘job quality’, with the gap between regions growing over the decade from 1997, and the focus of high-quality job creation biased towards already advantaged regions. There is evidence of increased job polarisation across most UK regions. The analyses suggest an important role of the public sector in providing high-quality jobs, particularly outside London and the South East.

The paper examines changes in UK regional employment during the period of the New Labour administration, 1997–2010, with the Blair and Brown administrations considered separately. The paper employs a shift-share analysis of workplace employment data by industry and subregion, using annual data from the UK Labour Force Survey. The results reveal significant regional shifts, with interesting spatial dynamics in and around the capital and resilient employment growth in the provinces.

There are pronounced differences in the productivity of local economies in England and Wales, with some areas thriving whilst others struggle with a legacy of de-industrialisation. This article relates productivity differentials to industry and occupation structure. Doing this facilitates the extrapolation of a metric for ‘productive employment base’ at local authority level. Using this measure, progress is examined for local authority areas in England and Wales during the period 1998–2012. Maps are produced of local areas making greatest gains. These are termed ‘emerging productive economies’.

Globalization is putting increasing pressure on jobs in the United Kingdom, particularly among less skilled activities. The European response through the Lisbon Strategy has been diffuse, while UK policy appears much more focused, concentrating on the need to raise education and skill levels. The present paper examines the transition towards a more highly qualified workforce in the United Kingdom, including an assessment of probable future developments given recent trends towards greater participation in higher education. It describes two complementary forecasting exercises, whereby a stock-flow model is used to produce UK-wide estimates and, then, a multi-logit equation is used to disaggregate these forecasts by region. The result is a set of estimates of the likely developments in the pattern of qualification attainment across the different parts of the United Kingdom, running through to 2014. It focuses upon the numbers of individuals broken down by level of qualification, gender, age and region. These forecasts suggest that, based on past trends (and consistent with meeting government targets), there will be substantial increases in the numbers and proportions of more qualified individuals and corresponding reductions among the less qualified. Further policy initiatives that may result from the Leitch Review are likely to further accentuate these changes.

There is an increasing recognition that it is qualityas much as quantity of employment which is important in assessing the positions and progress of local economies. Not least of all in light of the Lisbon Strategy and Leitch Report which emphasise world class skills and the knowledge economy. The paper details how the so called ‘Quality of Jobs’ framework can be adapted to local area data to produce consistent estimates of local area ‘job quality’ through time, based on Census, Annual Population Survey and Labour Force Survey sources. The methodology is described and local area estimates shown for illustration.

The desire to substitute leisure for work as we grow richer is anticipated in the work of Becker and was famously predicted by Keynes. With reference to the UK from 1994q2 to 2015q2, this study examines labour supply decisions with respect to earnings and considers whether we are willing or indeed able to work less. We specifically focus on the three points of time i.e. beginning of the sample, pre and post Global Financial Crisis. The results suggest that we are far from income-satiated. The elasticity of hours worked with respect to earnings is stubbornly inelastic and for some demographic cohorts positive, implying the desire to work more. We find that job flexibility matters in facilitating reduced hours of work, but that jobs are not becoming more flexible. We do see a secular reduction in hours worked, accompanied by a shift to working later in life, but these appear to be down to factors other than higher wages.